Lesson 4

What is S&OP and How Forecasting Fits into the Process

🎼An Orchestra with a ScoreIn the previous lesson, we compared the Demand Planner to a conductor. Now let’s add the sheet music. What does it do? It unites all musicians: violins know when to enter, drums when to stop, and the flute when to hit a high note.

In business, this score is the S&OP process (Sales and Operations Planning). It helps all departments stay in sync: sales, marketing, finance, production, and logistics align around one common plan.

🔍 Theory: What is S&OP?

S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) is a monthly cross-functional process where:
  • The Demand Forecast is reviewed and aligned
  • The Supply Plan is assessed for feasibility
  • Financial targets (budget, P&L) are discussed
  • Executive decisions are made and committed
S&OP is not just about spreadsheets and graphs. It’s about:
  • Regular cross-team meetings
  • Scenario-based analysis
  • Full departmental involvement
📅 Typically, S&OP is held monthly to:
  • Adjust forecasts
  • Make decisions about promotions, product launches, and investments
  • Synchronize plans between market and production sides
📌 Real Business Example: Danone

Danone uses S&OP as a core business process across 100+ countries. Their typical cycle includes:
  1. Demand Review — reviewing forecasts, discussing deviations and root causes (promo, market, distribution)
  2. Supply Review — reviewing capacities, logistics, risks, and constraints
  3. Pre-S&OP — preparing balanced scenarios with financial impact analysis (P&L)
  4. Executive S&OP — final approval aligned with strategic and financial goals
🔁 This cycle repeats monthly, supported by BI visualizations, SAP IBP templates, and leadership involvement.

Term (EN)

Meaning

S&OP

Sales & Operations Planning — alignment of demand and supply

Demand Review

Meeting to review and discuss the demand forecast

Supply Review

Meeting to assess production and logistics capability

Executive Review

Executive decision-making and alignment with company strategy


🛠 ToolsSAP IBP S&OP Template
  • Used to model demand-supply balance
  • Visualizes gaps, risks, and opportunities
  • Includes workflows: status, owner, deadline, comments
Decision Boards & Presentations
  • Executive S&OP isn’t just about numbers — it’s about action
  • Tools include: scenario comparisons, Plan B outlines, and margin impact charts
🚫 Myth Myth: Forecast = Supply Plan
Reality:
  • The forecast is what we expect to sell
  • The supply plan is what we can actually produce and deliver

These plans often don’t match, especially if:
  • The plant is at full capacity
  • There are raw material or logistics constraints
  • Demand suddenly spikes

💡 The role of S&OP is to reconcile these two realities.
🧠 Practice TaskYou are a participant in S&OP at an ice cream company:
  • Forecast shows +40% demand for July
  • Plant is already running at 95% capacity
  • Finance asks not to increase logistics costs
  • Marketing insists on launching a new flavor
📌 What compromise would you suggest?
📌 What scenario would you present in the Executive Review?
📌 What risks should be recorded?
📌 Key Takeaways

S&OP is the heart of business planning, where numbers and people meet
  • It’s not just Excel and slides — it’s a decision-making process
  • A successful S&OP = everyone playing in rhythm, like a well-scored orchestra

📅 What is an S&OP Meeting?

An S&OP meeting is the core monthly planning event of a company. Its purpose is to align across departments on:

  • Demand Forecast
  • Supply Capability
  • Financial Targets
  • Executive Decisions

It’s not just number reporting — it’s a cross-functional decision-making process.

Participant

Role and Contribution

Demand Planner

Prepares forecast, consolidates data, facilitates discussion

Sales Manager

Shares customer insights, explains deviations, provides promo expectations

Marketing Lead

Shares campaign and launch plans, brand support insights

Supply Chain Manager

Assesses production/logistics capabilities and risks

Finance Partner

Compares forecast with budget, reviews P&L impact, estimates EBIT alignment

S&OP Manager

Oversees the S&OP cycle, data quality, and milestone adherence

Executive Sponsor

Approves decisions, confirms KPI, sets strategic direction


🧭 Meeting Agenda & Discussion Topics

Demand Review

Questions:
  • Which categories/SKUs show deviations?
  • Where did actuals outperform or underperform forecast and why?
  • Are there unaccounted activities (promo, distribution, launches)?
  • What’s changing in market dynamics, customer behavior, macroeconomic factors?
Key KPIs:
  • Forecast Accuracy (%)
  • Forecast Bias
  • Volume vs LY (Last Year)
  • % Promo Sales
Supply Review

Questions:
  • Any production/raw material/logistics constraints?
  • Can we fulfill the current forecast?
  • Where are potential shortages or overstock?
  • What’s our inventory level and turnover?
Key KPIs:
  • Service Level
  • Capacity Utilization
  • Inventory Coverage (days)
  • OTIF (On Time In Full)
Scenario Planning (What-if)

Questions:
  • What if demand goes ±10%?
  • Do we have a Plan B for supply disruptions or failed promotions?
  • How do scenarios impact:
  • sales volume,
  • logistics cost,
  • margin?
Tools:
  • Excel / BI-based scenario planning
  • Power BI dashboards
  • Financial modeling
Executive Review

Questions:
  • Which forecast becomes the official plan?
  • What actions are approved and launched?
  • What risks are recorded and who is responsible?
Outcomes:
  • Finalized demand/supply plan for the period
  • Risk register and action log
  • Confirmed KPI targets

Area

Key Metrics

Demand

Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Bias, Volume vs LY

Supply

OTIF, Inventory Days, Capacity Load

Finance

Budget Deviation, Gross Margin Impact

Market

Promo Effectiveness, Channel Performance


📝 Meeting Output

Every S&OP meeting ends with documented outcomes:
  • Who owns what actions
  • What data needs recalculating
  • Which strategy goes forward
  • Topics for next month's agenda
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